Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Turkish Math

Looks like the Turks aren't so hot at math.

ZeroHedge -- Miraculously, there were no further escalations overnight, but as we outlined in detail on Tuesday, something doesn’t add up about the story Ankara is telling. According to a letter Turkey sent to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the 15 members of the UN Security Council, the Russian warplane, flying at 19,000 feet, “violated Turkish national airspace to a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length for 17 seconds.” If you do the math on that, it means the Su-24 was basically flying at stall speed. 

Our Friends, The Moderate Jihadists, Executed This Pilot

As you reflect on that wisdom, don't forget that the Al-Qaeda affiliated Jihadists who executed a Russian airman are backed by the US. Why?

Our Frenemies, ISIS

Because they're moderates, of course. And we have to ask, why is Turkey even a member of NATO? But given that it is, why not sign up the Caliphate too.

I mean to say, it's not as though we're supplying them with guns and money, or anything.




LL said...

This shoot down was an ambush, not a defensive reaction. The Turks said they provided multiple warnings that the Russians said they did not receive. The Turks did not say that the warnings were acknowledged in any way over a five-minute period. Five minutes is long time in the air for determining whether a violator poses a threat.

The alleged warnings aside, the Turks have been watching Russian air operations for weeks. The Russians have been open about their operations, their target areas and their willingness to make arrangements for avoiding air conflicts. The Turks knew the Russian aircraft was not targeting Turkey and had a hotline which the Russians said was not used.

The Turks reacted to prior alleged violations without shooting, but with warnings. On their face, those prior incidents could be understood as creating the precedent for not shooting, on which the Russians might have relied. Against that backdrop, the Turks seem to have been waiting for an opportunity to correct any Russian perception of implied permission.

The Turks claim they had the right to shoot, but it was not a smart move. It makes Turkey appear to be providing air support to extreme Islamic terrorists. Russia, the US and the rest of NATO have long known that Turkey has been a primary supporter of the Islamic State since its inception. Now the Turks have acted openly as accomplices to terrorism, especially if the Turkish fighters operated in Syria.

Turkey has instigated a confrontation with Russia that could escalate to a crisis. The Russians will avenge this shoot down. They subscribe to the Israeli doctrine of asymmetric punishment.

Russia has many options for retaliation, such as a Russian ambush of Turkish jets operating in Syrian airspace against Syrian Kurdish positions which they regularly do. Russian air defense missiles at Humaymim near Latakia and from the cruiser Moskva easily can reach the Turkish border. The Syrians have given the Russians permission to defend Syrian airspace. Now they will.

LSP said...

I don't see any way that our ally, Turkey, comes out of this looking good. And I wouldn't want to be a Turkish pilot, right about now.