Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Iran War - Success or Failure?

 



So here we are with a Memo of Understanding, MOU. According to The Kobeissi Letter the MOU includes 14 key terms:


1. The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon

2. The US and Iran agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs

3. The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended

4. The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days

5. Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge

6. The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction and economic development

7. The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions

8. Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision

9. Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces

10. The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services

11. The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use

12. The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal

13. After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution

 

Social media's been pretty brutal. How is Iran getting 300BN, right to levy tolls on shipping after 60 days, unfrozen assets, sanctions release and various waivers not a US/Israel surrender? Good question. My take, for what little it's worth, is that EL SENOR and Bibi thought they could decapitate the head of the snake swiftly and the Mullahs would fall. But they didn't, annoyingly, and an uneasy stand-off ensues.

Have we gained anything by this maritime Persian adventure? Killed some bad guys, there is that, but what else. Maybe there's a neat geostrat hack that I'm not getting which justifies the whole thing. Hope so, but in the meanwhile feel free to weigh in: Iran War - Good/Bad, Success/Failure or somewhere in between.

Cheers,

LSP


10 comments:

Well Seasoned Fool said...

Keeping the crazy Mullahs from having nukes was the important reason. Beyond that, just business as usual.
Say they got nukes. Load on on a ship, sail towards Baltimore and set it off while at the same time launching one or more at Israel.

Anonymous said...

Same ol', same ol'. Just another day in the neighborhood.

LL said...

What was the stated reason for the war? Start there and end there. While I tried to make the point on VM - We told Saddam Hussein that he had to get rid of his weapons of mass destruction. He did. We said, "We don't believe you," we invaded, killed him and instituted regime change. What does that look like now? We gave the 90 million Persians a chance to change their leadership and they wanted to keep the (new) ayatollah.

Anonymous said...

Sigh, Bibi's been singing that song for 19 years now. Every time he needs America to fight Israel's wars for him.

Iran has had the ability to build a dirty radiation bomb for 59 years from the reactor we gave them that used 90 percent enriched uranium. You could look both of these facts up or I could post links..

59 years without attacking Israel or America with a city destroying weapons.

Worst terrorists ever.

Did Iran attack America yet aside from the military we used to protect Israel?

Did Iran murder American leaders or sneak explosive pagers into civilian hands, crippling more than a few medical personnel?

Who is the terrorists here?

Michael the anonymous

LSP said...

Good call, WSF. Are you suggesting Baltimore should be nuked from high orbit? Who'd miss the Inner Harbor anyway.

LSP said...

Anon, the news cycle's getting repetitive, there is that.

LSP said...

Very well said, LL.

LSP said...

Michael Anon, you make a point and a good one.

Ritchie said...

So this is a deal to a process to look for a deal with crooks. Riiight. Resettable with explosives.

LSP said...

Something like that, Mr Ritchie.