Iran War - Success or Failure?

 

So here we are with a Memo of Understanding, MOU. According to The Kobeissi Letter the MOU includes 14 key terms:

1. The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon

2. The US and Iran agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs

3. The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended

4. The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days

5. Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge

6. The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction and economic development

7. The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions

8. Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision

9. Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces

10. The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services

11. The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use

12. The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal

13. After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution

 

Social media's been pretty brutal. How is Iran getting 300BN, right to levy tolls on shipping after 60 days, unfrozen assets, sanctions release and various waivers not a US/Israel surrender? Good question. My take, for what little it's worth, is that EL SENOR and Bibi thought they could decapitate the head of the snake swiftly and the Mullahs would fall. But they didn't, annoyingly, and an uneasy stand-off ensues.

Have we gained anything by this maritime Persian adventure? Killed some bad guys, there is that, but what else. Maybe there's a neat geostrat hack that I'm not getting which justifies the whole thing. Hope so, but in the meanwhile feel free to weigh in: Iran War - Good/Bad, Success/Failure or somewhere in between.

Cheers,

LSP