Have you heard of General Glubb, Glubb Pasha? A remarkable British soldier who served in World War I and went on to serve and lead the Arab Legion in the 1930s. He continued in this role until the 1950s and the arabization of the Legion's command, he died in 1986. That's by way of background, but when not soldiering Glubb was a scholar and historian who believed the rise and fall of empires followed a sevenfold pattern.
Namely: Outburst, Conquest, Commerce, Affluence, Intellect, Decadence, Collapse. Outburst, Conquest, Commerce and Affluence speak, I think, for themselves, Gilad Sommer describes the following two phases of the imperial trajectory:
The Age of Intellect – affluent young people now aim for the acquisition of knowledge and academic honors leading to new discoveries and technological progress. In a sort of nostalgic reverie, intellectuals begin to look back, document, and write down the history of the empire. A dangerous byproduct of the Age of Intellect is the belief that intellect by itself can solve the problems of the world.
“Any small activity requires for its survival a measure of self-sacrifice and service on the part of its members. (…). The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self-dedication can only lead to collapse.” (Glubb)
The Age of Decadence – the empire is getting old… Civil dissensions arise. The boat is sinking, and instead of collaborating to repair it or to build a new one, political factions fight each other over the leftovers. Immigrants flood the cities. Memories of old rivalries reappear. In response to the sinking of the empire, the helpless citizens react with aggressiveness or with a mentality of “after me, the flood”, an atmosphere of pessimism and frivolity arises. People live for themselves and for the moment, thus accelerating the breaking apart of the empire.
Thus in the end, through internal decay brought on ironically by success, the empire falls and is replaced. Glubb believed this process took around 250 years, and it's more than a little tempting to see ourselves in his Age of Decadence, the timing's even about right. But the question is, can we cheat the prophets and reverse the trend? That remains to be seen.
SPQR,
LSP
